Labyrinth "Let's Roll" Scenario AAR, Part 1
By Volko Ruhnke
Introduction
The following narrative is based on a two-player test game from early
September 2009. Three previous playtests (of a hypothetical President
Gore scenario) led to important changes to the US soft power and war of
ideas mechanics. This playing resulted in two card-text clarifications
but no rules changes. I played the US side, and my son Daniel (age 14)
played the jihadists. Both of us opted for strategy focused on the
long-term (conservative, with lots of investment actions) – one of us
too much so. The
scenario is “Let’s Roll!”. It begins in the immediate aftermath of
9/11, with both US prestige and jihadist funding at high levels. The US
power preference (Posture) is Hard. Afghanistan is under Islamist Rule.
The jihadist side seeks to weaken and then violently overthrow Muslim
governments to create a pan-Islamist mega-state; the US side seeks to
keep a lid on all that while spreading democracy (Good Governance). Each
2-player hand of cards in the game represents roughly a year in the
conflict, so the narrative below tracks hands of cards by calendar
years. [Text in brackets notes game-play representing the preceding
portion of the “historical” narrative.] Late 2001: Al-Qaeda Arsenal, Enduring Freedom, Beirut Tinder
Even as al-Qaeda put its attacks on the US Homeland into motion, it
dispatches operatives to pursue contacts in Central Asia who offer to
sell it former-Soviet materials for weapons of mass destruction. Kazakh
authorities nab a cell seeking bioweapons, but a second cell succeeds
in acquiring enough enriched uranium for the assembly of a nuclear
device. [Travel 2 cells Afghanistan to Central Asia; “Kazakh Strain” and “HEU” events.] Meanwhile,
the US works to line up allies in the war on terror about to begin: The
UK immediately and Eastern European countries more reluctantly back a
forceful US response. US forces invade Afghanistan to eliminate
al-Qaeda’s sanctuary, in a military move largely seen as an
overreaction to 9/11. Nevertheless, immediate UN commitment to
reconstruction and political development of post-Taliban Afghanistan
makes surprisingly rapid gains. Even Tehran gets into the act there,
carrying out covert operations against its old Taliban enemy. [War
of Ideas (WoI) in UK, EEurope twice, & Germany result in Hard,
Hard, Soft, respectively (+2 Prestige); Regime Change—6 troops to
Afghanistan, which goes to Poor Ally, -5 Prestige, Islamist Resources 1
to 0; “UN Nation Builing” on a 6 shifts Afghanistan to Fair; “Iran”
removes 1 cell from Afghanistan.] Further west, assassination
of a popular anti-Syrian politician in Lebanon sparks democratic
revival there (a so-called “Cedar Revolution”) while deepening
repression in Syria. Kurdish jihadists build strength in Iraq, then
cross the border into the Levant, perhaps to exploit the discontent in
Damascus or to spike the liberalism emanating from Beirut. Victory by
HAMAS in Palestinian legislative elections detracts attention (and
funding) from al-Qaeda, so it urges cells in Lebanon, Syria, and
Uzbekistan to prepare terrorist attacks to regain the jihad center
stage. Bombings in the latter two countries succeed in refilling AQ
coffers. [“Hariri Killed”, Lebanon tests Fair, Syria to Poor;
“Ansar al-Islam” on US play puts a cell in Iraq; recruit in Iraq adds
second cell, travel to Syria & Lebanon; several Plots in
Lebanon/Syria fail, 1 in Syria & 1 in Central Asia succeed and
boost Funding to 9.] 2002: Central Asia Stews, the Homeland Secures
With the US’s poor post-invasion image, little progress can be made in
stabilizing Afghanistan; Washington turns instead to improving its
cachet. Unfortunately, politicians in Europe are keener to exploit
anti-US feelings there, and Germany and France openly criticize US
“bullying” in South Asia. Timely taunts from Bin Laden—whereabouts
unknown—make the US military effort appear that much more misguided. US
support along with much of the EU of Muslim aspirations in Kosovo help
US prestige a little, but only at the cost of Serbian opposition to the
war on terror. Diplomacy to mend fences with Berlin and Belgrade falls
flat. [“Schroeder
& Chirac” and “Bin Laden Audio” send Prestige to 1; “Kosovo”
Prestige to 2; 2 WoI in Germany and 1 in Serbia leave both Soft.] Meanwhile,
the jihadists focus on recruiting, surging their numbers in several
Central Asian states and exploiting Israeli withdrawal from Gaza to
train operatives there and then infiltrate them into Lebanon to join
accomplices waiting there. Russian security services—no doubt nervous
about the growing jihadist presence in Russia’s “near abroad”—work with
their friends in Central Asia to disrupt the cells there, but they do
not even come close to countering al-Qaeda’s rate of recruitment. [Multiple
Recruit ops in Central Asia vs “FSB” results in 6 cell total there;
jihadist play of “Gaza Withdrawal” places cell in Israel that travels
to Lebanon.] Washington, aware of Bin Laden’s acquisition of
fissile material (though not of where AQ is keeping it) acts to secure
the Homeland against another attack. Congress passes the Patriot Act to
tighten US borders and increases appropriations for nuclear emergency
and bioterrorism preparedness. [US play of “Patriot Act” and “NEST” make it harder for cells to travel to the US and easier for US to block WMD Plots there.] 2003: Counterstroke in the Levant, Fire in the Horn
As al-Qaeda continues to recruit and train under the poor governance in
Central Asia, the US and Israel conspire to strike a blow in Lebanon.
As AQ ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is lured to take emirship of jihadists
there, Mossad uses its reach into the country to launch
counterterrorist operations that devastate the al-Qaeda presence.
Recruiting in Syria lapses. [3
of 4 Recruit ops Central Asia fail; US play of “Zarqawi” to Alert
against Plot in Lebanon induces jihadists to place a 3rd cell there,
“Mossad & Shin Bet” removes all cells from Lebanon; 2 Recruit ops
in Syria fail.] Meanwhile, jihadists open a new front in the
global conflict even as Afghanistan heats up. Jihadist cells form in
Somalia just as Mogadishu has developed a semblance of decent
government, while volunteers from across the Arab world—attracted by
the opportunity to fight US forces directly—pour into Afghanistan by
various routes. US forces do a reputable job hunting them down and
thwarting their terrorist attacks. But the fighting inspires Uzbek
jihadists next door to organize a “Jihad Union”, adding to what
increasing looks like Asia’s “Jihad Central” in their country. [“Al-Ittihad
al-Islami” places a cell in Somalia, which tests Fair; “Foreign
Fighters” puts 3 cells into Afghanistan; 1 of 3 Afghan Plots succeed (2
failures each remove a cell); US Disrupts there to remove last cell and
add 1 to Prestige; US play of “Islamic Jihad Union” to Alert against
Plot adds a 7th cell to Central Asia.] On the diplomatic
front, US sanction under Patriot Act authorities of Muslim
organizations that donate to al-Qaeda and the impact of Philippine Moro
separatists entering talks with Manila finally trim jihadist finances
to moderate levels. Efforts by Tony Blair to unite Europe behind the US
are less successful, however, and Manila joins the ranks of those
opposed to US military “adventurism”. While Washington leaning on
Manila soon brings it around, the affair is widely viewed as a sign of
waning global support for the war in Afghanistan. [“Sanctions”
and “Moro Talks” drop Funding to 6; “Tony Blair” WoI all fail;
Philippines to Soft imposes GWOT Relations penalty of 1; 2 WoI
Philippines to Hard, Prestige to 4 (Medium).] Now the bombs
really go off. Central Asia as expected sees terrorist violence. But it
is the Somali cell that turns out to be the most skillful and highly
motivated, carrying out a long series of destructive and coordinated
bombings (though enough of them involve suicide operations that the
cell largely eliminates itself). In none of these attacks has al-Qaeda
turned to its nuclear capability—conventional explosives are working
just fine. It’s all too much for the Somali government, which, despite
valiant efforts to control the violence, ultimately disintegrates.
Donations to the global jihad skyrocket. [2 of 3 Plot ops
succeed (Central Asia & Somalia); “Martyrdom Operation” adds 2 more
to Somalia and removes the cell there; 6 post-Plot rolls against
Somalia’s Governance just barely succeeds in worsening it to Poor;
Funding maxes out at 9.] 2004: Central Asian Revolution, South Asian Containment
The war in Afghanistan grinds on. Efforts to develop the ability of the
government—reasonably effective within Kabul—to provide services in the
countryside are disappointing. International support for the US mission
is sufficient, however, for NATO-led forces to augment US troops there.
That support does not include Pakistan, however, which tilts toward the
Islamists. In Washington, meantime, domestic counterterrorist
authorities are consumed by investigation into the delivery of
anthrax-laced letters through the US Mail. [WoI Afghanistan fails, “NATO” marker placed there; “Kashmir” Pakistan to Adversary; “Amerithrax” discards US 3 card.] Without
further warning, the seeds al-Qaeda planted as it sought former Soviet
weapons sprout. The jihadists’ sizable army of guerilla fighters built
over the previous 2½ years comes down from the Uzbek and Tajik hills,
and the corrupt and ineffective post-Soviet governments of Central Asia
fall like dominoes. The black flags of the mujahidin fly over Tashkent
and Dushanbe, and the Islamist regime begins to send fighters south to
strike the Infidel in Afghanistan. Further south, the Kashmiri-jihadist
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT) build strength in pro-US India and in the
sanctuary of Pakistan. [Fully successful 3-value Jihad in
Central Asia leaves 8 cells there, Central Asia Poor Neutral to
Islamist Rule Adversary, Islamist Resources to 2; “Lashkar-e-Tayyiba”
places cells in India and Pakistan, India tests Hard; 3 cells travel
Central Asia to Afghanistan.] The US-led Coalition now faces a
choice between an immediate counteroffensive and containment of the
Central Asian caliphate. With resources still committed to an unsettled
Afghanistan, it chooses containment. India disrupts the LT cell within
its borders. Tehran—as worried about the Sunni extremist power in its
neighborhood as is the Coalition in Afghanistan—uses its agents in that
country to hunt down Tajik mujahidin. Meanwhile, Coalition forces take
advantage of jihadist attempts to strike US facilities to root out
others. [Disrupt in India removes cell there; “Iran” removes cell in Afghanistan; 2 of 3 plot ops there fail, removing 2 cells.] Unfortunately,
US focus on the plotting in Afghanistan prevents it from supporting
what might have been a reform movement in Pakistan. And one plot in
Kabul does succeed, causing substantial US casualties and turning
allied malaise to defeatism. The blasts kill not only “infidels” but
also Afghan bystanders, however. Muslim media coverage of that aspect
of the attacks—together with new US Treasury sanctions—brings outside
funding for al-Qaeda to a historic low. [Jihadist play of
“Benazir Bhutto” canceled by use for the above Plot ops; “Backlash” on
3 Plot in Afghanistan—Prestige sinks to 1 but also Funding down to 4
(just above Tight).] With the Islamist drive south just about
spent, the jihadists attempt one more plot in Afghanistan, then shift
their crosshairs onto Syria, where US forces will have much more
trouble reaching them. Recruitment there resumes, and a major attack
against Western presence in Damascus comes off, and the flow of
terrorist finance is partially restored. The US uses the respite in
Afghanistan and the reinforcement from NATO to bring some weary troops
home. [2 Recruit ops adds a 2nd cell to Syria; 3 plots there
and 1 in Afghanistan fail, a 4th plot placed in Syria resolves and
bumps Funding back up to 7 (Ample for now but will drop to Moderate
with standard -1 Funding at end of hand). 2 of 6 troops in Afghanistan
Deploy to US Troops track (still at War) while there are no cells to
keep them in the Regime Change country.] 2005: Pulling Up Tent Stakes, Spreading Contagion
While South Asia solidifies further for the Coalition—Islamabad opens
talks with India, an abrupt turn away from its heretofore irredentist
and anti-US politics—the Central Asia Islamists remain focused on the
Levant. Recruiting in Syria continues, as well as attempts to
infiltrate the country directly from the Uzbek-Tajik caliphate. In
response, the US signs the King of nearby Jordan up for the war on
terror. [Recruit
op brings Syria to 3 cells; 1 Travel Central Asia to Syria fails;
“Indo-Pakistani Talks” precondition met by Fair governance in Pakistan,
Pak to Ally and further “Kashmir” and “LT” blocked; “Abdullah” sets
Jordan at Fair Ally (containing jihadism from Syria, as Lebanon also
remains at Fair), slight increase to US Prestige and decrease to
Funding.] As Syrian authorities are kept busy chasing
terrorist plotters there, events elsewhere are generally unhelpful to
the Coalition. Islamic extremism builds in the Sunni population of
western Iraq, offering a future safe haven to Syrian jihadists should
they need one. A military clash between Israel and HAMAS stokes anger
against the US and contributions to al-Qaeda and siphons US resources
but does distract support from the Taliban. Yemen distances itself from
Washington’s global war. Jihadism is discovered and disrupted in
England, discovered and left to fester in Indonesia. US diplomacy does
score a success in patching things up with Serbia, and Saudi Arabia and
Iraq have been quiet enough to bring home some US troops from the Arab
Peninsula. [“Gaza War” sends Prestige back to 1, Funding to 6,
discards “Taliban” from US hand; jihadist play of “Saleh” sets Yemen to
Fair Adversary; US uses “Al-Anbar” for War of Ideas in Serbia, event
marker placed between Iraq and Syria, Prestige to 2; “Homegrown” places
a cell in UK, which Plots unsuccessfully and then is Disrupted with US
play of “Jemaah Islamiya”, which places 2 cells in Indonesia/Malaysia
and tests those countries as Poor Neutral. Syrian Alert removes a
pending plot there, other plots there fail to mature. 2 troops Deploy
from Saudi Arabia to Troops Track, US still barely at War.] 2006: "Safer Now"
As the jihadist contagion spreads, al-Qaeda off-shoots test the waters
in Egypt and Turkey and find the government in the latter disturbingly
competent. But troubles with the Kurds undermine recent reforms in
Ankara while, in Lebanon, Hizballah skullduggery aborts the budding
democratization there.
[“Regional
Al-Qaeda” places cells in Egypt (Poor) and Turkey (Fair); “Kurdistan”
worsens Turkey to Poor; “Hizballah” worsens Lebanon to Poor.]
The
US Administration, while secretly undertaking renditions of jihadists
detained in Afghanistan to third countries that might better exploit
their information, publicly makes “safer now” a slogan for the mid-term
elections. The celebration of 5 years without a Homeland attack does
point out to the world some apparent success in the United States’ war
on terror, but the campaign has the unintended effect of dampening the
US electorate’s — and Congress’s — enthusiasm for hard tactics against
terror. Stung, the Administration responds with softened pronouncements
— to the bemusement of allies overseas who have invested domestic
political capital to buttress the US hard line (or perhaps truly
believe that a US hard line remains warranted). As if to emphasize
their point, a series of truck bombs rocks Damascus, to the benefit of
jihadist finances.
[“Renditions” causes jihadist discard;
“Safer Now” raises Prestige to 4 (Medium), US Posture to Soft and with
it GWOT penalty to 3; 3 Plot operations in Syria all succeed and go
off, sending Funding to 9.]
The US begins its repair effort
with allies, managing to convince the understanding East Europeans that
new times demand new tactics. Consistent with the domestic mood, the US
brings more troops home from Arabia. It also pursues cooperation in
earnest with Russia to secure its WMD arsenal against any acquisition
attempts from the nearby caliphate. The caliphate, for its part,
continues its efforts to infiltrate operatives and fighters into Syria.
The campaign of terrorist attacks in the latter country continues,
while suicide attacks strike Jakarta and Bali.
[WoI leaves
Serbia Hard but shifts EEurope to Soft, Prestige to 5, GWOT penalty to
2; 2 troops Deploy from Gulf States to the Troops Track, US at Low
Intensity for an extra card; “CTR” to Russia; 1 of 3 Travel Central
Asia to Syria succeeds; 1 Plot in Syria and “Martyrdom Operation” in
Indonesia resolve, keeping Funding at max.]
End of Part 1. To be continued....
|
